Nifty Outlook for 14-12-2011

Daily Outlook
We were watching 4730 as trend decider level for the day and expecting at least intraday pullback at 4830 levels once it gets hold. Despite opening lower at 4733 and losing merely five points in early trade, Nifty rebounded and touched the day’s high at 4824 levels in intraday trade. At the end, Nifty registered “psychological” close at 4800 mark with the gain of 36 point.
On daily chart, Nifty has formed “Thrusting line” a bullish continuation pattern by taking support at important level of 4730 level. This could be the indicative of temporary pullback in Nifty. In this case, the level of 4830 becomes important level to be watch. As we said before, in case, if Nifty succeeds to hold above 4780 and sustain above 4830 then it will see continuation in pullback in Nifty. In that case, Nifty will test 4880 and above that 5000 levels in coming session. On the other hand, if it fails to hold and remain below said level then we will see violation of 4700 mark in few sessions.

(..pls note ….the violation of 4728-20 level has open the possibility of 2nd corrective after “x” wave as we mentioned earlier …in this case, Nifty has strong possibility to test 4400 (in case of double combination) and below that in between 3800-4200 level (in case of triple combination) in coming session.
We said that the rally from 4639 level could be label as “b” of wave A which we mentioned as 2nd corrective. Further we mentioned that it has good chance to test 5260 level (only in case of Flat pattern) but in case of Zigzag it will see an end around 5110 level. After testing high of 5099 level on 7th of this month, Nifty observed stiff fall and lost 338 points within three days trade. This could be the indication that “b” of wave A either subdividing into three wave structure (a, b c pattern) or ended at 5099 level as a part of Zigzag pattern. In case of subdivision, it will end above 4680-4700 level but in case of “expected c” wave, it will violate previous bottom of 4639 level….pls note)

The trend decider level for the day is 4830 level. A sustainable move above this level will lead further rise around 4880-4900 levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead fall to test 4730 mark again in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 4780 2) 4740 3) 4700
Resistance :- 1) 4830 2) 4870 3) 4910

Daily Outlook
We said that formation of green candle indicates bullish bias but never negates the possibility of intraday fall around 5020 level. After opening lower on Monday’s trade, Nifty witnessed rise but restricted its trade below 5060 by testing day’s high at 5055 level and slipped down at day’s low at 5002 level. Finally, witnessing some rally in last an hour of trade, Nifty closed at 5039 level by losing 11 point.
On daily chart, Nifty has formed “in body” small green candle with upper and higher lower tail. This implies tug-of war between buyers and sellers. It means neither bulls nor bears were able to gain control. This could be the indication of development of turning point. In such kind of scenario, 5080 on upper side and 5020 on lower side remains important levels to watch. If Nifty succeeds to hold and sustain above 5080 level then it will extend its rally i.e. above 5080 will lead 5110-5160 levels in coming trade. On the downside, if Nifty fails to hold and remain below 5020 then it will trigger fall. In that case, t Nifty’s fall into previous gap area of 4880 levels in few session can not be ruled out.
(..remember ….the violation of 4728-20 level has open the possibility of 2nd corrective after “x” wave as we mentioned earlier …in this case, Nifty has strong possibility to test 4400 (in case of double combination) and below that in between 3800-4200 level (in case of triple combination) in coming session. As of now, it could be “b” of A of 2nd corrective which has good chance to test 5260 level (only in case of Flat pattern….in case of Zigzag it will end around 5110 level…pls note) . After that we expect downward “c” of A which will trigger the violation of recent bottom of 4639). As per rule, the 2nd corrective could be a triangle means the fall from 5399 could be a part of Triangle …)

The level of 5020 will acts as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead rise around 5080 levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will trigger correction around 4960-80 and below levels in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 5020 2) 4980 3) 4940
Resistance :- 1) 5080 2) 5120 3) 5150

Nifty Outlook for 05-12-2011

Daily Outlook
Nifty continued its winning on back of global rally. After opening merely one point higher and witnessing fall at 4918 thereafter, Nifty rebounded and surged above another psychological mark of 5000 level. At the end, Nifty registered close at 5050 level by gaining 114 point.
On daily chart, Nifty has formed big body green candle with small upper and lower shadow and closed above 50% retracement of entire rally from 5399 to 4639 level. This indicates bullish bias but never negates at least intraday fall around 5020 level. In case, if Nifty succeeds to hold and sustain above 5080-5100 level which is acting one of the important resistance level for the day then it will continues the rally. In that case, The possibility of Nifty testing 5160-5260 levels in coming session will remain on card. On the other hand, failure to trade above 5080-5100 level will lead profit booking in Nifty. In this case, Nifty will test 5000 and below that 4960 levels.
(..remember ….the violation of 4728-20 level has open the possibility of 2nd corrective after “x” wave as we mentioned earlier …in this case, Nifty has strong possibility to test 4400 (in case of double combination) and below that in between 3800-4200 level (in case of triple combination) in coming session. As of now, it could be “b” of B of 2nd corrective which has good chance to test 5260 level (only in case of Flat pattern….in case of Zigzag it will end around 5110 level…pls note) . After that we expect downward “c” of B which will trigger the violation of recent bottom of 4639). As per rule, the 2nd corrective could be a triangle means the fall from 5399 could be a part of Triangle …)

The level of 5020 will acts as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in pullback rally in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will trigger correction around 4960-80 levels in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 5020 2) 4980 3) 4940
Resistance :- 1) 5080 2) 5120 3) 5150

Nifty Outlook for 02-12-2011

Daily Outlook
Nifty continued its winning streak by gaining 104 points huge gain. Nifty responded to the massive global rally with a big gap opening and touched the days high at 5011 level in intraday trade. Finally witnessing some intraday correction in last an hour of trade, Nifty closed above another psychological hurdle of 4900 mark at 4936 level.
On daily chart, Nifty has formed Red candle with higher upper tail. This indicates profit booking at higher level. In such a kind of scenario, the level of 4900 will remains important levels to watch. If Nifty fails to hold and remain below 4900 level for the day then it will see fall into the yesterday’s gap area in between 4865 to 4880 levels. While if Nifty manage to sustain above 4900 level then it will continue the rise above below 4960 and above 5000 level.
(..remember ….the violation of 4728-20 level has open the possibility of 2nd corrective after “x” wave as we mentioned earlier …in this case, Nifty has strong possibility to test 4400 (in case of double combination) and below that in between 3800-4200 level (in case of triple combination) in coming session. )

The level of 4900 will acts as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in pullback rally in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead further intraday correction around 4860-80 levels in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 4900 2) 4860 3) 4820
Resistance :- 1) 4970 2) 5010 3) 5050

Daily Outlook
We were watching 5219 as trend decider level for the day. Yesterday, Nifty opened with downside gap but rebounded at day’s at 5300 thereafter by holding 5200 mark. At the end, Nifty managed to close near previous day’s close at 5258 level with 0.5 points minor gain.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed Bullish “Counter Attack” pattern with higher upper tail. This indicates that a line has been drawn in the “sand” on the current trend and the opposing forces are determined to change that trend. In such kind of scenario, the psychological level of 5200 will become important levels to watch. In case, If Nifty succeeds to hold and sustain above 5200 level then we will see continuation in the pullback rally in Nifty i.e. above 5300 will lead 5370 and 5420 levels. On the other hand, If Nifty fails to hold and remain below 5200 then we will see continuation in downward correction around 5100 to 5100 levels in coming session.
The trend decider level for the day is 5200 levels. A sustainable move above this level will lead pullback in Nifty. However, failure to sustain above this level will further damage (possible correction in between 5020-5100 levels) in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 5200 2) 5160 3) 5120
Resistance :- 1) 5280 2) 5310 3) 5340

Nifty Outlook for 03-11-2011

Daily Outlook
We were watching 5219 as trend decider level for the day. Yesterday, Nifty opened with downside gap but rebounded at day’s at 5300 thereafter by holding 5200 mark. At the end, Nifty managed to close near previous day’s close at 5258 level with 0.5 points minor gain.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed Bullish “Counter Attack” pattern with higher upper tail. This indicates that a line has been drawn in the “sand” on the current trend and the opposing forces are determined to change that trend. In such kind of scenario, the psychological level of 5200 will become important levels to watch. In case, If Nifty succeeds to hold and sustain above 5200 level then we will see continuation in the pullback rally in Nifty i.e. above 5300 will lead 5370 and 5420 levels. On the other hand, If Nifty fails to hold and remain below 5200 then we will see continuation in downward correction around 5100 to 5100 levels in coming session.
The trend decider level for the day is 5200 levels. A sustainable move above this level will lead pullback in Nifty. However, failure to sustain above this level will further damage (possible correction in between 5020-5100 levels) in Nifty.
Support :- 1) 5200 2) 5160 3) 5120
Resistance :- 1) 5280 2) 5310 3) 5340

Nifty Outlook for 19-10-2011

Daily Outlook
On Monday, we were watching 5170 as trend decider level. Nifty restricted its trade at 5160 levels and thereafter, witnessed continuous two day’s fall at 5011 level, forming falling gap in between 5084 to 5057 levels. Yesterday, again, Nifty closed with negative bias at 5037 with loss of another 80 point.
The Nifty has formed a bearish continuation candle with long lower shadow. The long lower shadow of candle implies that sellers drove prices lower during the session but strong finish indicates that buyers regained their footing to end the session on strong note. In this kind of scenario, the level of 4990 which is acting as important support level for the day as 38.2% retracement level of entire rise from 4720 to 5169 level will play important role as “trend decider” level for the day. In case, if Nifty succeeds to hold and sustain above 4990 level for the day then we will see pullback in Nifty. In this case, Nifty will attempt to fill the yesterday’s falling gap of 5060-5080 level. However, failure to sustain above 4990 will lead continuation in downward move in Nifty around 4950-4880(temporary correction) level.
(Remember, 5330 is 61.8 % levels of entire fall from 5700 level which we mentioned as “X” wave’s maximum target. Only sustainable move above 5330 levels will open the possibility of “B” wave…rare, as ABC pattern has ended in channel ( see weekly chart )which gives surety about current move from 4720 as wave “X” and not a “B” wave ….….as per the possibility of X, it could be the subdivision of x wave in the form of ABC Flat pattern…the current fall from the top of 5169 dated 08-09-2011 could be label as “B” of X as a triangle…and rise from 4728 could be label as “C” of “X” which wrongly stated as “C” of Triangle )

Support :- 1) 4990 2) 4960 3) 4930
Resistance :- 1) 5170 2) 5200 3) 5230







Buy Coal INdia  @ 334 or oin dip at 328 sl 322 trgt 355-362 (7-8 days)

Nifty outlook for 17-10-2011

Daily Outlook

We were watching 5070 as trend decider level for the day and were expecting Nifty’s continuation of rising trend once move sustains above this level.  After opening lower at 5075 and recording low at 5056 level on Friday’s trade, Nifty rebounded smartly and surged at higher level above 5100 mark. Finally, recording day’s high at 5141 level, Nifty closed at 5132 by gaining 54 point.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed bullish powerful candle “Piercing Line” against previous day’s Red candle.  The formation of piercing line pattern which implies renewed buying pressure indicates further upside move in Nifty. In case, if Nifty breaches and sustain 5170 which is multiple top area then rise will get continue in coming session i.e. above 5170 will lead 5200 and above that expected  5330 level. On the contrary , if Nifty fails to hold  and  remain below 5170 then it will witness the intraday fall at 5120 level…( pls note , a sustainable move below 5120 will negate the “piercing line” patterns bullish effect which will the indication of temporary correction around 4940-4880 levels.)

(Remember, 5330 is 61.8 % levels of entire fall from 5700 level which we mentioned as “X” wave’s maximum target. Only sustainable move above 5330 levels will open the possibility of “B” wave…rare, as ABC pattern has ended in channel ( see weekly chart )which gives surety about current move from 4720 as wave “X” and not a “B” wave ….….as per the possibility of X, it could be  the subdivision of  x wave in the form of ABC Flat pattern…the current fall from the top of 5169 dated 08-09-2011 could be label as “B” of X as a triangle…and rise from 4728 could be label as “C” of Triangle . ) 

 

The trend decider level for the day is 5170 levels. A sustainable move above this level will continue the pullback in Nifty. However, failure to sustain above this level will force Nifty to fall at 5100-5120 level in intraday trade.

 Support  :-       1)  5120   2) 5080  3)  5040

Resistance  :-   1)  5170   2) 5210   3) 5250

Weekly Outlook

Nifty clocked the best weekly gain by ending the week  5% higher. After opening at 4886 against previous close of 4888, Nifty remained in rising trend and reclaimed 5100 mark.  Finally, touching weekly high of 5141, Nifty ended the week at 5132 level with the gain of 244 point.  Sector wise, all the sector closed in positive note but the major contribution were made by IT and Tech which kick started and surprised the market with 8.7% and 8% rise respectively.  The other contributors were as follow, Banking (gained 6.9% ), Relalty (gained 5%) , Oil( gained 4.8% )and Auto (4.19%), Metal (3.8%) Midcap (3.8%),  Power (3.2%),  Small cap (2.77%), FMCG (2.33%), PSU (2.12%), Cap Goods (2.07%), and Healthcare (0.98%).

In previous  weekly note dated 2^nd Oct 2011, we said  ” the formation of thrusting line pattern indicates that the sellers who clearly dominant going in, look like to continue their winning streak until second week and after that bulls  will take over and will implement  partial turnaround which means complete reversal of bullish”. In Next week, Nifty fell down below previous week’s low which was 4758 and re tested 4720 level by correcting at 4728 and after that rebounded into “bullish reversal” which is continued till day by gaining more than 400 points in Nifty from 4728 level.

On weekly chart, Nifty has formed another green but Huge candle. This indicates completely dominant of buyer over seller. It look like that Nifty will continue the rising trend in next week. However, the possibility of short term correction from higher level cannot be ruled out on “Third Fibonacci week of rise”. In case, if Nifty fails to hold above 5230 which is 61.8% correction level of entire fall from 5741 to 4720 level and remain below psychological level of 5200 mark then  we will see fall in Nifty. In this case, Nifty will test 4880-4900 levels as a part of temporary correction in our view. However, a stable move above 5230 will lead continuation in rise in Nifty. In that case, Nifty will see at 5330 levels in coming session as we said.

The trend decider level for the week is 5230. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation of rise in Nifty. However, failure to sustain will trigger the possibility of correction in Nifty.

Weekly Sup :-   1)  5050 2) 4960

Weekly Res :-   1) 5230  2) 5330  

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