Sunday, November 11, 2012

Nifty showing weakness

Nifty outlook for 11-11-2012 ( daily and Weekly)

Nifty ended the day on negative note at 5686 levels by losing 52 points. After opening seven points lower at 5731 levels, Nifty rose higher and made day’s high at 5751 levels in an early trade. Thereafter, witnessing continuous selling pressure, Nifty slipped at day’s low at 5677 levels.

The formation of “Red” candle with higher upper shadow on daily chart which implies selling pressure indicates weakness in the market. In case, if Nifty fails to hold 5710 levels which is acting as important resistance levels of the day as 50% correction levels of ”Red” candle then weakness will persist further  i.e. below 5680 it will lead 5640 and below that 5600 levels. On the contrary, if Nifty succeeds to hold and sustains above 5710 levels then bearish effect will get nullify and market will test 5800 levels in coming session.
The level of 5650 will act as trend decider levels. A sustainable move above this levels will lead pullback rally in the market. However, failure to trade above this levels will lead further fall in our view.

Support               1)  5650  2) 5610
Resistance          1) 5710   2) 5750

Weekly  Outlook

Nifty ended the week 11 point lower at 5686 levels against previous weeks 5697 levels. Mid cap index rose 0.23% and Small Cap index gained 0.07%. Both indices outperformed the market.


On Weekly chart, Nifty has formed small body “High wave” pattern with higher upper shadow. This indicates that the market is having difficulty coming to a consensus on security’s value. It means this indicates indecisive nature of market as neither buyer nor the sellers have a clear sense of the direction where demand and supply are equally balanced.  In this kind of scenario, the level of 5720 on higher side and 5640 on lower side remains important levels to watch for the week. If Nifty manages to hold and sustains above 5720 levels then trend will remain positive. In that case Nifty will test 5820 levels in coming session. On the other hand, if Nifty fails to hold and remains below 5640 levels for the week then trend will remains negative. In that case, Nifty’s possibility of violating 5500 marks can not be ruled out.
The level of 5370 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in upward rally in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead at least intraday correction around 5340-30 levels in Nifty.
Weeky
Support           :-      1)   5630  2)  5550
Resistance      :-       1)  5730   2)  5820

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 07-11-2012

Nifty gained marginal strength amid volatility in late trade following up move in European markets ahead of US Presidential Elections. Nifty closed 20 points higher at 5724.20 levels against previous day closing 5704.20 after witnessing days low at 5693.65 levels. It made days high at 5730.80 levels before close.



On daily chart, Nifty has formed a Bullish candle with upper shadow against previous day’s bull candle. It also has maintained the previous gap ( 5649 to 5679 levels which formed on 1st November). This indicates bullish sentiment but never negates the possibility of profit booking on higher levels.  In this case, the levels of 5750 will act as important levels to watch. If Nifty manage to hold 5740 levels and sustains above 5750 levels for the day then we will see further extension in the trend. In that case, Nifty will test 5820 levels in coming session in our view. On the contrary, failure to do so will result in profit booking which will lead downward correction in Nifty.  In that case, Nifty’s possibility of testing 5660 or lower levels in intraday trade can not be ruled out. 

The level of 5750 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in upward rally in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead at least intraday correction around 5660-30 levels in Nifty.

Daily
Support           :-      1)  5700   2)  5660
Resistance      :-      1)  5750   2)  5790

  As of now , we considered the fall from 12440 to 7500 levels as wave A of   triangle. When wave B exceeds 1.236% of   wave A then it could...