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Market outlook foe 28-12-2012

In 26th note we said that “harami black” in body candle may lead pullback in an early trade and maximum it can extend its gain around 5920-30 levels”. On Thursday’s trade ( 27th Dec 2012) Nifty closed at 5917 levels and next day extended its trade at 5930 levels but failed to gain further as a result it witnessed 66 points fall. After opening higher at 5930 levels Nifty could not hold the gain and slipped down at day’s low at 5864 levels. Finally Nifty closed at 5870 levels with loss of 60 point.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a big bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” pattern.  The presence of this pattern indicates further weakness (could be trend reversal) in the market. In case, if market fails to hold below 5896 which is acting as important resistance for the day as 50% retracement of “DCC” pattern and remains below 5875 levels for the day then we will see continuation in downward move in Nifty. In that case, Nifty’s possibility of violating 5840 mark and below that 5800 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if Nifty succeeds to hold 5875 and sustains above 5896 levels for the day then it will continue the rise i.e. above 5905 will lead 5930 and 5980 levels in coming trade. Overall, bias will remain negative below 5800 as long as Nifty remains below 5920-30 levels as we said before.
The level of 5896 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead rise violating bearish effect of DCC pattern. However, failure to trade above this level will lead continuation in fall below 5840 levels in our view.

Support           :-      1)  5840   2)  5800
Resistance      :-      1)  5896   2)  5910


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