Nifty may took sup@ TL and may re-est 5910....thereafter it will fall down

Market outlook foe 28-12-2012

In 26^th note we said that “harami black” in body candle may lead pullback in an early trade and maximum it can extend its gain around 5920-30 levels”. On Thursday’s trade ( 27^th Dec 2012) Nifty closed at 5917 levels and next day extended its trade at 5930 levels but failed to gain further as a result it witnessed 66 points fall. After opening higher at 5930 levels Nifty could not hold the gain and slipped down at day’s low at 5864 levels. Finally Nifty closed at 5870 levels with loss of 60 point.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a big bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” pattern.  The presence of this pattern indicates further weakness (could be trend reversal) in the market. In case, if market fails to hold below 5896 which is acting as important resistance for the day as 50% retracement of “DCC” pattern and remains below 5875 levels for the day then we will see continuation in downward move in Nifty. In that case, Nifty’s possibility of violating 5840 mark and below that 5800 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if Nifty succeeds to hold 5875 and sustains above 5896 levels for the day then it will continue the rise i.e. above 5905 will lead 5930 and 5980 levels in coming trade. Overall, bias will remain negative below 5800 as long as Nifty remains below 5920-30 levels as we said before.

The level of 5896 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead rise violating bearish effect of DCC pattern. However, failure to trade above this level will lead continuation in fall below 5840 levels in our view.

Daily

Support           :-      1)  5840   2)  5800

Resistance      :-      1)  5896   2)  5910

Finally down.....failure to hold 5920-30 led downward move....now 5840 is watchable

Not able to stable above 5920-30

Nifty Intraday expected move................-v bias as long as Nifty holds below 5920-30

Nifty Technical view for 26-12-2012

Nifty ended marginally positive despite 22 points gap up opening. After strong opening, Nifty could not maintain the strength as investors booked profit at higher levels ahead of Tuesday’s Christmas holiday and Thursday’s expiry of December Derivative contract. As a result,  Nifty slipped down and registered day’s low  at 5844 levels, maintaining Fridays low( 5842) and finally closed at 5855 levels. It made a  days high at 5871 levels.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a Red “in body” candle with higher lower tail called “Harami black”. The Japanese definition of this candle means pregnant woman.  The presence of this candle indicates that market may see pullback in an early trade but only stable move may change the direction of the market. In such a scenario, the levels of  5840 on downside and the levels of 5880 on upside remains important levels to watch for the day. In case, if market holds and sustains above 5880 which is acting as important resistance for the day then we will see continuation in upward rally i.e. above  5880 levels it will test 5920 in coming trade ( remember, stable move above 5920-30 levels will diminish bears power which will lead 5980 levels.) On the other hand, if market fails to hold and remains below 5840 levels which is an important support levels for the day then  it will see further fall. In that case, Nifty will test 5760-70 levels in coming session in our view.  Overall, bias seems to be negative upto 5770 levels as long as Nifty holds below 5920-30 levels.

The level of 5840 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead pullback around 5880-90levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead  violation of 5800 levels in our view.

Daily

Support           :-      1)  5820   2)  5770

Resistance      :-      1)  5880   2)  5930

possible pullback around 5885...but bias remains -v

Negative bias in ACC and Nifty