Holding above 6040 may lead bounce but failure to hold above 6085-90 lead will fall again.

Nifty intraday move for 29-01-2013

It could be a Best Sell @ 6080-85

Nifty outlook for 08-01-2013

                                        Nifty Outlook for 08-01-2013

Nifty restricted its trade below 6040 levels and closed in negative on 2^nd day of week. After gap up opening at 6042 levels Nifty could not maintain the gain on back of weak Asian cues and slipped down below 6000 mark. Finally, remaining in selling pressure throughout the day, Nifty ended lower by 28 point at 5988 levels.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a powerful bearish “Engulfing line” pattern against yesterdays green “in neck line” pattern. It also has arrested below upper line of conical shape trend line (represent in blue line). It indicates weakness in the trend. In this kind of scenario, the levels of 6010 which is acting as important resistance level for the day as 50% correction levels of bearish “Engulfing” pattern, remains important level to watch. In case, if Nifty fails to hold 6010 and remains below 5990 levels then we will see further correction in Nifty. In that case, Nifty’s possibility of violating 2^nd  rising gap of 5960 levels  and 1^st rising gap of 5920 levels will an not be ruled out. On the other hand, if Nifty succeeds to hold 5990 and sustain above 6010 levels then will see continuation in uptrend in coming session i.e. above 6040 levels will lead 6080 levels. For the day, 5960 will act strong support levels while 6010 will act as strong resistance levels.

The level of 5960 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead in pullback around 6010 levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead further fall around 5920 levels.

Daily

Support           :-      1)  5960   2)  5920

Resistance      :-      1)  6010   2)  6050

Nifty Outlook for 07-01-2013

Outlook for 05-01-2013

Nifty ended marginally positive by 7 points despite violating previous day’s low in an early. Nifty opened higher at 6011 level and registered days high at 6020 levels in an early trade. Thereafter, it could not maintain the gain and slipped down below previous day’s low at 5981 levels  but managed to hold main support of previous gap area of 5960 levels and rose above 6000 mark in last half an hour of trade. At the end, Nifty closed at 6016 levels.

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a green “in neck line” pattern against previous day’s red “counter attack” pattern. It indicates that market has recovered is short but not change its trend direction. It means market may continue its further upward move. In this case, the level of 5990 which is acting as important support for the day remains watchable.  If Nifty holds and sustain above this levels for the day then it will continue the upward move. In that case, Nifty’s possibility of testing 6030 and above that 6080 levels can not be ruled out. On the contrary, if Nifty fails to hold and remains below 5990 levels then we will see another intraday fall around 5960 levels…(remember, any sustainable move below 5960 levels will lead further fall into the 1^st gap area around 5920 levels.)    

The level of 5990 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in pullback around 6040-6080 levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead fall  around 5920 levels.

Daily

Support           :-      1)  5990   2)  5940

Resistance      :-      1)  6030   2)  6070

 

Nifty Outlook for 04-01-2013 with overall view

Nifty ended marginally positive despite gap up opening. After strong opening at 6015 levels , Nifty could not maintain the strength as investors booked profit at higher levels. Finally Nifty closed with 16 points minor gain at 6009 levels.

  

On daily chart, Nifty has formed a Red “counter attack” candle with higher lower tail after two successful rising gap. The presence of this candle indicates that market may see intraday correction in an early trade. In case, if Nifty fails to hold above 6020 and remains below  6010 levels  then it  will see  intraday correction into the 2^nd gap area around 5970 levels.Any trade below 5970 levels will lead further downward move into the 1^st gap up area. On the other hand, if Nifty succeeds to hold 6010 and sustain above 6020 levels then we will see continuation in rise. In that case, Nifty will test 6045 and above that 6080 levels in coming trade. (Remember, Nifty has achieved minimum requirement of 5970 levels as a proportion of 80% correction of previous move “D’ble combination. As per rule it can go up to 101% which arise above 6335 levels but not necessary. Therefore,   traders are advised to be cautious.

  

The level of 5960 will act as trend decider level for the day. A sustainable move above this level will lead continuation in pullback around 6040-6080 levels in Nifty. However, failure to trade above this level will lead further downward move.

Daily

Support           :-      1)  5970   2)  5940

Resistance      :-      1)  6010   2)  6040

Nifty retraced 80% of previous move....Now 6080,6180 remains watchable levels....strong possibility to hit 6335 again but that could be the end.....

In previous article (published on Nov. 2010. Feb 2011) we said about  downward large “C” wave.

Further we said that it could be a triple combination (Published on 18^th Jan 2012, as long term view). In that article, we said that Nifty will hit 3800-4200 levels in case of Triple combination but in case of D’ble combination it will end nearby 4400 levels. After that Nifty witnessed 28% fall (58 trading week)  up to 4531 levels  from the top of 6335 levels and again rebounded at 6000 levels ( rule of D’ble combination, See  below “Long term view” chart).

As per proportion of  D’ble combination,  Nifty achieved  “at least 80%” retracement of previous move which comes at 5970 levels and still showing strength ( Remember, D’ble combination always retraces “at least “ 80% of previous move and maximum it can retrace 101% of previous move as per rule. Means, there is strong possibility that Nifty may test 6335 levels in coming session but that could be an end of “B” of large “c” wave or any wave)   

In 28^th Dec 2012 article , we were watching 5840 levels as main support and 5920 as main resistance for the rally for the last couple of day and were expecting fall around 5760 (TL value) but Nifty managed to hold above 5840 levels and witnessed rise above 5970 levels  (80% retracement) . Now,  Nifty is trading at 6001.20 levels ( 03-01-2013, 2.40 pm). Technically, the resistance for the day lies at 6040 and resistance for the rally lies at 6080 and 6180 levels. If Nifty manage to hold and sustains above these levels then the rally will get continue and Nifty will test 6300 levels in coming trade.  In case of failure to hold 6040 will lead intraday fall around intraday support of 5960-40 levels. Trend will change  into –v if Nifty fails to hold 5920 levels as per our view.  

Possible wave count…..

The current rally from 4531 could be label as “B” of large “c” wave  (OR  wave “D” of triangle)and expected to end in between 81% to 101% of previous move which comes in between 6080 to 6335 levels. After that we expect “c” of large “c” wave….subdivision of large “c” wave into  ABC flat pattern ( OR  last wave of triangle wave “E”.)